‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Ringing In Healthy New Year With Potential $87M 4-Day – Saturday AM Update



SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart Avatar: The Way of Water is looking fantastic in its third weekend after Friday beat its own evening estimates with $24.4M, +27% from a week ago. That puts the James Cameron movie on a run for a $67.8M 3-day weekend, +7% from last weekend’s Christmas period, and a potential 4-day between $87M-$92M per industry estimates. On the high end of that range, Avatar 2 could see a -4% dip from its Dec. 23-26 take of $95.6M. In that range, by Monday, Avatar 2 will outstrip the 18-day running total of its comp, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which had $440.9M by that point in time with a total between $450M-$446M. One conservative estimate has Avatar 2‘s third sesh at $77M over 4 days, which would get it to $435.1M, and see it 1% behind Rogue One by EOD Monday.

The film is ringing in a healthy New Year for exhibition leading a total domestic marketplace of $104.2M over Friday-Sunday, which is 5% higher than New Year’s Weekend 2022 when Spider-Man: No Way Home led all titles to $98.9M.


FRIDAY PM UPDATE: Avatar The Way of Water‘s 3rd Friday is on its way to $22M+, which is up 15% from its second Friday of $19.2M a week ago and will put the sequel’s 15-day total at around $380M. Today’s gross is also bigger than Rogue One‘s third Friday of $18.2M. This looks to be shaping up for a third 3-day weekend of $57M, -10%, and 4-day of $75M, maybe even a bit more at 4,202 theaters. By EOD Monday, Jan. 2, the 20th Century Studios/Disney/Lightstorm movie hopes to stand at $433.1M stateside.

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is eyeing a second Friday of $5.3M, +39% from a week ago, for a 3-day of $13.3M (+7%), 4-day of $17.7M at 4,121 theaters, and a running total through 13 days of $62.1M, -33% behind Sing 2 versus the same point in time.

Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in its 8th Friday is seeing around $1.6M, a 3-day of $4.7M (+33%), 4-day of $6.4M and running total in its 8th weekend of $439.3M. The sequel is in play at 2,310 theaters.

Sony/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody is seeing a second Friday of $1.3M, -35%, and a second weekend of $3.7M, -22% and 4-day of $4.9M for an 11-day total of $15.4M. The Whitney Houston biopic is booked at 3,625 theaters.

Paramount/C2’s Babylon at 3,351 theaters is seeing $850K today, $2.9M for its second weekend, -19%, and a 4-day of $3.3M raising its 11-day total $10.7M. The movie will soon surpass the lifetime domestic total of Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley, a dark, R-rated high brow adult title from last Christmas which finaled at $11.3M. Nightmare Alley was nominated for four Oscars including Best Picture.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY AM: It was another $20M day for James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, so big that it was the biggest regular box office Thursday of the year after the sequel’s Dec. 22 take of $14.6M and Top Gun: Maverick‘s June 2 gross. The movie’s running total is $358M stateside with a 3-day expected to be around $50M and will cross the $400M threshold on New Year’s Day per box office sources. New Year’s Eve Saturday isn’t expected to be as depressed as Christmas Eve was a week ago.

To date, the Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm movie has the following daily 2022 records: top and second grossing Thursday, the 2nd and 3rd highest Mondays of the year, the 1st and 2nd highest Tuesdays, and 1st and 3rd highest Wednesday.

Total Thursday global was $67.9M. Overseas B.O. total cume is $810.6M –surpassing Top Gun: Maverick‘s $770M to become the No. 1 international release of 2022 and No. 2 MPA title abroad in the pandemic era. Ongoing worldwide total for Avatar 2 is $1.168 billion.

We hear Comscore is down this AM, preventing others from reporting numbers. Disney didn’t have any problems, clearly.

We’ll have more updates for you as they come.