Defending Britain with the magic money tree? Starmer warned he faces hiking taxes to get the country 'war-ready' as he ducks on funding for plan to see off Putin
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Sir Keir Starmer was today warned he faces having to hike taxes to get Britain 'war-ready' - as he dodged on funding for his plan to see off Russia's Vladimir Putin.
The PM has heralded a strategic review of the UK's military and promised investment in new submarines, munitions and personnel.
He insisted the mounting threat from Russia and allies such as Iran and North Korea means the country must ramp up preparations.
But the premier refused to commit to a firm timetable for defence spending reaching 3 per cent of GDP - even though the 10-year plan is predicated on that happening.
The Treasury appears to be panicking over how to balance the books as the economy stalls, and Labour MPs force their party's leadership to retreat on welfare cuts.
The respected IFS think-tank said 'chunky' tax rises are the only way to keep finances under control, while ex-foreign secretary Jack Straw cautioned there was 'no alternative' to increasing the burden on households.
Economists predicted that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to smash her fiscal rules.
Lord Dannatt, the former head of the Army, warned that vague funding pledges will not 'cut the mustard'.
He said it was like telling Hitler in 1938 'please don't attack us until 1946 because we're not going to be ready'.
External authors of the strategic defence review (SDR) - the 62 recommendations of which are being accepted in full by Sir Keir - have suggested that reaching 3 per cent is 'vital' to its success.
In a sign of the urgency of the situation, Germany's defence chief has raised the prospect of Putin attacking a NATO state within the next four years.
And a senior Liberal Democrat MP said this morning that he believes the UK will be directly at war with Moscow within a decade.
Key elements of the proposals include:
- Up to 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines will be built;
- A £1.5billion push to set up at least six munitions factories, supporting the procurement of up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons
- British fighter jets could soon carry nuclear weapons for the first time;
- Increasing the number of people in the Armed Forces, but not until the next Parliament;
- Setting up a new cyber command and investing £1billion in digital capabilities;
- Up to £1billion in new funding for homeland air and missile defence;
- More than £1.5billion in extra funding will go to military homes in response to the review.
In the SDR, Russia is branded 'an immediate and pressing threat', as the invasion of Ukraine 'makes unequivocally clear its willingness to use force to achieve its goals'.
Meanwhile, China is labelled a 'sophisticated and persistent challenge' with Beijing 'likely to continue seeking advantage through espionage and cyber attacks' and expected to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Both Iran and North Korea are described as 'regional disruptors'.
Speaking in the House of Commons this afternoon, Defence Secretary John Healey pledged to make the British Army '10 times more lethal'.
He told MPs: 'The threats we face are now more serious and less predictable than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
'We face war in Europe, growing Russian aggression, new nuclear risks, and daily cyber attacks at home.
'Our adversaries are working more in alliance with one another, while technology is changing the way war is fought.
'We are in a new era of threat, which demands a new era for UK defence.'
Mr Healey said the Government wants to be the first in a 'generation' to oversee an increase the number of soldiers in the British Army.
He set out an aim for there to be at least 76,000 full-time soldiers in the next Parliament, up from the current level of around 70,000.
The capacity of Manchester United's Old Trafford stadium is 74,140.
The SDR has also recommended an expansion in the cadet forces by 30 per cent by 2030, with an overall of 250,000 signed up in the longer term.
The authors of the SDR are Labour former minister Lord Robertson, Russian expert Fiona Hill and General Sir Richard Barrons.
Writing in The Telegraph, they said the 'Government's important decision to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027-28 and, vitally, to 3 per cent in the next Parliament made an enormous difference'.
The trio added: 'The decision established the affordability of our recommendations across a 10-year programme.'
After Sir Keir refused to set out a clear timeline for spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence, Tory shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge claimed there had been a 'total unravelling' of the SDR.
'They haven't got a plan to fund it,' he told MPs. 'An SDR without the funding is an empty wish list.
'The ships and submarines it talks of are a fantasy fleet. The reviewers were clear in the Telegraph today that the commitment to 3 per cent, and I quote, established the affordability of the plan.
'On Thursday, the Defence Secretary said in an interview with The Times that reaching 3 per cent was a certainty.
'But by the weekend he had completely backtracked to 3 per cent to being just an ambition.
'And today the PM was unable to give a date by when 3 per cent would be reached. Why? Because the Treasury hasn't approved a plan to pay for it.'
Sir Keir had said earlier: 'We had a commitment for 2.5 per cent by the end of this Parliament. We pulled that right forward to 2027.
'We showed that when we say there's a new era of the defence and security of our country, is our first priority – as it is – that we meant it. We take the same approach to 3 per cent.
'But I'm not going to indulge in the fantasy politics of simply plucking dates from the air until I'm absolutely clear that I can sit here in an interview with you and tell you exactly how that's going to work, because I take the defence and security of our country extremely seriously.'
He added on BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'I am not going to make a commitment as to the precise date.'
Mr Healey told MPs this afternoon he was 'totally confident' the Government will increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP 'in the next Parliament'.
The Defence Secretary yesterday rowed back on a statement that the increase 'will' happen, stressing that it is an 'ambition'.
Sir Keir launched the Government's SDR in Scotland, following many months of work and lobbying by military chiefs.
A NATO summit later this month is expected to push for members to hit 3.5 per cent by 2032, while US President Donald Trump has already called for a jump to 5 per cent within the alliance.
Speaking in Glasgow, Sir Keir said: 'First, we are moving to war-fighting readiness as the central purpose of our armed forces.
'When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready, and frankly, to show them that we're ready to deliver peace through strength.'
'The second change is that the Government will adopt a 'Nato-first' stance towards defence so that everything it does adds to the strength of the alliance.'
Sir Keir added: 'Third, we will innovate and accelerate innovation at a wartime pace, so we can meet the threats of today and of tomorrow, as the fastest innovator in NATO.'
German defence chief General Carsten Breuer told the BBC over the weekend that Russia could attack a NATO Baltic state member by 2029, or even earlier.
'This is what the analysts are assessing - in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029... If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that's not earlier than 2029? I would say no, it's not. So we must be able to fight tonight,' he said.
Lord Dannatt told Times Radio that the Government might have to 'tighten its belt' or increase taxes to escalate defence spending.
'Just moving to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 does not cut the mustard in any shape or form,' he said.
'And this rather vague commitment to move to 3 per cent by the end of the next parliament, 2034, I mean, it just doesn't stack up.
'It's a little bit like saying in 1938 to Adolf Hitler, please don't attack us till 1946, because we're not going to be ready.
'Well, frankly, if we'd behaved like that, we wouldn't be speaking English this morning, would we?'
IFS director Paul Johnson pointed out that the Government was already making noises about reinstating the winter fuel allowance, and easing the two-child benefits cap.
'We've got a spending review next week. And if we're really going to spend another £10-15billion a year on defence, whilst inevitably we're going to spend more and more on health and pensions and so on, you really do have to ask that question, what are the choices that you're going to make?' he told Times Radio.
'And I mean, bluntly, it really does seem to me that the only choice that is available, if we're going to go through all of those things, is some really quite chunky tax increases to pay for it.
'But of course, that's not something the prime minister or the chancellor is willing actually to say.'
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane also predicted tax rises 'towards the end of the year', and suggested Ms Reeves will also have to rewrite her fiscal rules to get defence spending higher.
'It will require Rachel to loosen herself imposed fiscal chains to some degree, and indeed, we'll need to see some tax rises I suspect towards the end of the year,' he told LBC.
'We'll need a bit more borrowing, a bit more taxation and a loosening of our fiscal shackles, to step up to the plate on defence things and beyond.'
Labour veteran Mr Straw said welfare would have to be curbed alongside tax increases.
'Taxes will have to rise. I don't see any alternative to that and at the same time, there will have to be some quite difficult retrenchment, particularly on parts of the social security budget,' he said.
'Ministers are quite right to look at things like the huge growth in some aspects of disability payments. It's very hard for individual claimants. But the truth is, even a few years ago, these were not available, and people were still managing.'
Mr Healey told the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show yesterday: 'We have a historic commitment to increasing defence spending to 2.5 per cent in two years' time. We haven't hit that level since Labour was last in power in 2010. And an ambition to meet 3 per cent in the next Parliament.'
Challenged that it was an 'just an ambition' rather than a 'guarantee', Mr Healey talked about being able to 'deliver the vision' of today's review.
Defence minister Luke Pollard again refused to confirm the commitment this morning, telling Times Radio: 'Well, we've set out that we are spending 2.5 per cent by April 2027, with the ambition to spend 3 per cent in the next parliament, when economic conditions allow.'
He added: 'Well I've got no doubt that we will get to 3 per cent in the next parliament, as I've said a number of times.'
Mr Pollard said the strategic defence review was the 'biggest transformation of our armed forces in 100 years'.
He said: 'It seeks to learn the lessons from the war in Ukraine, refresh our capabilities, invest in our people, and underscore that increased defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of our GDP by April 2027 is an engine for growth.'
The Ministry of Defence has already announced plans to build up to 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines to boost the Royal Navy's commitment to the Aukus Pacific defence partnership with Australia and the United States, while investing £15billion in warheads.
But the first of these UK-built submarines is not expected to enter service before the late 2030s.
It will also be for future Parliaments to honour the spending commitment.
