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Sir Keir Starmer's 'one-in, one-out scheme' has no chance of deterring Channel migrants unless it is significantly scaled up, it was claimed today.
The second migrant was successfully deported to France as part of the agreement this morning - only for hundreds more to set off in dinghies from a beach near Calais.
Rob Lawrie, a former soldier who has been speaking to people smugglers for a new podcast, insisted the scheme was too small scale to be a deterrent.
One people smuggler he spoke to suggested 2,000 migrants would have to be returned every week to persuade more from crossing - but even if that happens more would continue to come from France in new bigger boats.
'I was talking to a smuggler in Germany last week who said the UK needs to be sending back at least 2,000 a week - and even if that happened they could send 2,000 more a day the other way,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
'It's that much money involved in the people smuggling network... I'm talking hundreds of millions.
'He also pointed out that down the line - ''next season'' he called it - they're introducing 18-metre boats. We've had one this year with 132 migrants on board.
'I understand this is a pilot scheme, but in order for this to be effective they need to have about two to three thousand migrants a week heading to France - and even that won't meet the number of migrants coming across the Channel.'
At least three dinghies were seen making way out to sea from Gravelines beach in Calais this morning, with migrants brought ashore at Dover by Border Force hours later.
Around the same time, the Eritrean was escorted on an Air France flight that left Heathrow for Paris at 6.39am.
In a last-minute legal challenge, the man's lawyers had attempted to temporarily block his deportation by claiming he was an 'alleged trafficking victim'.
But his bid failed and he arrived in France this morning. The first migrant deported under the scheme, an Indian man, was flown from London to Paris yesterday morning after three days of legal limbo.
The Eritrean - who appeared to be aged in his 20s - was sitting in the final row of the plane, dressed in a white hooded top and black Adidas tracksuit trousers.
Flight AF1381 was completely full apart from the seat next to him, with three Home Office staff - including two security guards - sat further along.
The migrant, who had short cropped hair and a short beard, stared out of the window at the bright orange sunrise as the plane took off.
He accepted a cup of tea with sugar and a packet of Breton biscuits from the cabin crew, while a Home Office official was seen filling out a complicated document.
At the High Court yesterday, Mr Justice Sheldon heard claims the man had been 'forced to flee Eritrea in 2019 because of forced conscription' and spent time in Ethiopia, South Sudan and Libya.
He travelled to France, where he stayed in Paris for around a week, where he was 'homeless and destitute, and constantly fearing for his life'.
The man then went to Dunkirk, where he stayed in the encampment known as 'The Jungle' for around three weeks, without claiming asylum in France.
He arrived in the UK via a small boat and was detained by the UK Border Force on August 6, before being told his asylum claim in the UK was inadmissible on August 9.
Barristers for the man, who cannot be named, had argued that the decision was 'procedurally unfair' as he had not been given sufficient opportunity to put forward evidence supporting his claim that he was an 'alleged trafficking victim'.
In a ruling, Mr Justice Sheldon said 'there is no serious issue to be tried in this case' and that the man gave differing accounts of his allegations of trafficking.
'It was open to (the Home Office) to conclude that his credibility was severely damaged and his account of trafficking could not reasonably be believed,' the judge added.
He also said there was 'significant public interest in favour of the claimant's removal'.
Hundreds of migrants tried to cross the Channel this morning as the deportation took place.
At least one inflatable dinghy full of young men made its way out to sea from Gravelines beach, north-east Calais, at daybreak this morning.
As the boat came close to shore, people waded through waist-high water towards it and a child was passed aboard before it went out to sea.
In the town itself at 5.30am, a group of 40 young men appeared from a quiet side street carrying an inflatable boat over their heads before launching it into a canal.
Police officers watched on from the bank as the driver of the boat struggled to keep it in a straight line.
Earlier in the night, a group of men formed a human chain to help haul people out of the mud after a failed attempt to launch a boat in the canal.
Another Eritrean man successfully asked the judges on Tuesday to temporarily block his deportation after the same judge found there was a 'serious issue to be tried' over whether his removal was lawful amid claims he had been trafficked.
In that case, the court heard that the national referral mechanism (NRM) - which identifies and assesses victims of slavery and human trafficking - found that the man had likely not been trafficked, but offered him time to make further representations.
Mr Justice Sheldon said there was 'still room for further investigation into the trafficking claim'.
Following Tuesday's hearing, the Home Office revised its policy on reconsidering modern slavery decisions, so that anyone being removed to a safe country who wants to appeal against an NRM decision will be unable to do so.
Instead, they can launch a legal challenge from another country, such as France.
The latest deportation will come as a relief to the Home Office amid pressure to tackle the small boats crisis, with Donald Trump suggesting Sir Keir Starmer should use the military.
The US President said during his state visit to the UK that the Prime Minister 'should take a very strong stand' on immigration which is 'really hurting him badly'.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the first return showed people crossing the Channel that 'if you enter the UK illegally, we will seek to remove you'.
She said she would 'continue to challenge any last-minute, vexatious attempts to frustrate a removal in the courts'.
The returns agreement had faced growing scrutiny after reports of flights for removals being cancelled earlier this week.
Ministers agreed the pilot scheme with the French government in July as part of efforts to deter the record number of arrivals by small boat.
Hours after the first removal yesterday under the agreement, Mr Trump urged Sir Keir to involve the military.
At a joint Chequers press conference with the Prime Minister, the president highlighted his own record in securing the US borders and suggested the UK faced a similar challenge.
He said: 'You have people coming in and I told the Prime Minister I would stop it, and it doesn't matter if you call out the military, it doesn't matter what means you use.
'It destroys countries from within and we're actually now removing a lot of the people that came into our country.'
The American leader later said of Sir Keir in a Fox News interview: 'I think he should take a very strong stand on the immigration. It's really hurting him badly.'