More than half of Antarctica's ice shelves could collapse by 2300 - sparking 32 FEET of irreversible global sea level rise, scientists warn

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By SHIVALI BEST, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR

Published: 07:29 EDT, 31 October 2025 | Updated: 07:29 EDT, 31 October 2025

Cities and towns around the world could be plunged underwater in just 275 years, a new study has warned. 

Scientists from Sorbonne University in Paris predict that up to 59 per cent of Antarctica's ice shelves could collapse by 2300. 

If this happens, it will result in up to 10 metres (32ft) of irreversible global sea–level rise. 

Here in the UK, Hull, Glasgow, and Bristol would be submerged, while over in the US, people living in Houston, New Orleans, and Miami would be forced to move inland. 

This might sound like something from the latest science fiction blockbuster. 

However, the experts say it could become a reality if greenhouse gas emissions continue to skyrocket. 

'Our results show that current choices to change emission pathways could significantly affect the likelihood of the long–term loss of most Antarctic ice shelves,' the researchers explained. 

'The viability of ice shelves strongly depends on the emission scenario, as only one ice shelf becomes likely or very likely non–viable by 2300 in the low–emission scenario compared with 59% in the high–emission scenario.'

Antarctica is home to 15 major ice shelves and many smaller ones. 

As the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, these ice shelves are crucial for controlling ice loss. 

'As they restrain the ice flow from the grounded ice sheet to the ocean through so–called buttressing, they represent a safety band around Antarctica,' the researchers, led by Clara Burgard, explained in their study, published in Nature. 

'Their thinning and eventual collapse hence accelerates ice discharge into the ocean.'

In their study, the team conducted simulations to understand how the melting of 64 ice shelves could change as emissions continue to rise. 

Their results revealed that, under a low–emissions scenario in which global warming is kept below 2°C by 2300, only one of the 64 ice shelves would be at risk. 

However, under a high–emissions scenario, we face a bleak future. 

The simulation found that if global warming reaches 12°C by 2300, 38 (59 per cent) of the ice shelves could disappear – contributing to 10 metres (32ft) of sea–level rise. 

And though 2300 feels quite far away, we'd begin feeling the impacts much sooner, according to the researchers.  

'The period between approximately 2085 and 2170 marks the period with the highest rate of ice shelves that would reach likely non–viability,' they explained. 

While this all feels quite dramatic, the researchers actually say that their estimate is 'conservative'. 

'This estimate is on the most conservative side, and actual thinning, retreat or collapse could occur sooner depending on the vulnerability of a given ice shelf to other processes such as damage, rifting, hydrofracturing or calving,' they added. 

If sea levels do rise by 32ft (10 metres), entire cities around the world will be plunged underwater, according to Climate Central's Coastal Risk Screening Tool. 

In the UK, people living in Portsmouth, Southend-on-Sea, Hull, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Bristol, and Cardiff will be submerged. 

Huge swathes of London along the River Thames will also be underwater, including Hammersmith, Greenwich, Southwark, and Westminster.  

In Europe, the entire coast from Calais in France to Ringkobing in Denmark will be underwater, while Venice, Montpellier, Seville, and Lisbon will also be impacted. 

Over in Asia, much of Bangladesh will be affected, along with cities like Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh City, and Karachi. 

And in the US, the entire coast of Florida, Louisiana, and Texas faces life underwater. 

Overall, the researchers hope the findings will highlight the need for urgent action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. 

'Our results show that current choices to change emission pathways could significantly affect the likelihood of the long-term loss of most Antarctic ice shelves,' they concluded. 

GLACIERS AND ICE SHEETS MELTING WOULD HAVE A 'DRAMATIC IMPACT' ON GLOBAL SEA LEVELS

Global sea levels could rise as much as 10ft (3 metres) if the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica collapses. 

Sea level rises threaten cities from Shanghai to London, to low-lying swathes of Florida or Bangladesh, and to entire nations such as the Maldives. 

In the UK, for instance, a rise of 6.7ft (2 metres) or more may cause areas such as Hull, Peterborough, Portsmouth and parts of east London and the Thames Estuary at risk of becoming submerged.

The collapse of the glacier, which could begin with decades, could also submerge major cities such as New York and Sydney.

Parts of New Orleans, Houston and Miami in the south on the US would also be particularly hard hit.

A 2014 study looked by the union of concerned scientists looked at 52 sea level indicators in communities across the US.

It found tidal flooding will dramatically increase in many East and Gulf Coast locations, based on a conservative estimate of predicted sea level increases based on current data.

The results showed that most of these communities will experience a steep increase in the number and severity of tidal flooding events over the coming decades.

By 2030, more than half of the 52 communities studied are projected to experience, on average, at least 24 tidal floods per year in exposed areas, assuming moderate sea level rise projections. Twenty of these communities could see a tripling or more in tidal flooding events.

The mid-Atlantic coast is expected to see some of the greatest increases in flood frequency. Places such as Annapolis, Maryland and Washington, DC can expect more than 150 tidal floods a year, and several locations in New Jersey could see 80 tidal floods or more.

In the UK, a two metre (6.5 ft) rise by 2040 would see large parts of Kent almost completely submerged, according to the results of a paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science in November 2016.

Areas on the south coast like Portsmouth, as well as Cambridge and Peterborough would also be heavily affected.

Cities and towns around the Humber estuary, such as Hull, Scunthorpe and Grimsby would also experience intense flooding. 

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