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Hurricane Melissa – the most powerful storm in Jamaica's history – was made four times more likely by climate change, according to a study.
The catastrophic category 5 hurricane struck the island on Tuesday, bringing sustained winds that peaked at 185mph, flash floods and landslides.
It has left a trail of destruction through the Caribbean, with dozens confirmed dead and homes obliterated.
Now, experts have warned that our over–reliance on oil, gas and coal increased both the likelihood and intensity of the storm.
Looking ahead, hurricanes like this will only get worse unless global warming is urgently curbed, they added.
'Man–made climate change clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive,' Professor Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said.
'These storms will become even more devastating in the future if we continue overheating the planet by burning fossil fuels.
'Jamaica had plenty of time and experience to prepare for this storm, but there are limits to how countries can prepare and adapt. Adaption to climate change is vital but it is not a sufficient response to global warming.'
Professor Toumi's team used the Imperial College Storm Model for their study. This collates a database of millions of simulated tropical cyclone tracks, allowing scientists to determine the likelihood of a given storm's wind speed impacting any location in the world.
They found that climate change boosted Melissa's wind speed by seven per cent – the equilavent of 11mph.
In a cooler world without climate change, a Melissa–type hurricane would have made landfall once every 8,000 years, they said.
But in today's climate, with 1.3°C warming, it has become four times more likely – with such an event now expected once every 1,700 years.
The researchers estimate that in a world with 2°C of warming, wind speeds would be even higher and the damages would be greater.
Preliminary analysis by Enki Research put the direct damage to physical assets in Jamaica at $7.7 billion – or about 37 per cent of the country's GDP.
The researchers estimate that in a world without climate change, a weaker hurricane would have been about 12 per cent less damaging.
Jamaica now faces an enormous relief effort to help the roughly 400,000 people reportedly affected, in a country where more than two–thirds of its population live within 5km (3.1 miles) of the sea.
Jamaican hospitals have been pushed to the brink by floodwaters and there is an urgent need for basic supplies. Hundreds and thousands of residents are without power and basic telecommunications.
Before it made landfall, the hurricane underwent extreme and rapid intensification from Saturday 25 October, with wind speeds rising by 70mph in just 24 hours.
This intensification is at the extremes of what has ever been observed.
When it hit Jamaica several days later, it lashed the island with as much as 76cm of rainfall and winds reaching 185mph.
The neighbouring islands of Haiti and the Dominican Republic had already been hit by the storm, where it destroyed crops, drove food shortages and caused flooding.
Co–author Dr Emily Theokritoff, a research associate in climate damage attribution, said: 'What we show in this study is only a direct and partial snapshot of the total costs inflicted by Hurricane Melissa over time and across several Caribbean countries.
'Nevertheless, it illustrates how climate injustice unfolds: small island developing states bear very little responsibility for the climate crisis yet endure some of its worst impacts.
'As we approach COP30, this is a stark reminder of both the economic logic of reducing emissions now and the moral imperative to rapidly scale up international finance for loss and damage and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries.'
Commenting on the storm Professor Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis an Research Units group, said: 'Climate change, expressed through the record–breaking warm ocean temperatures that Melissa has been traversing has, inevitably, had an impact on the storm.
'Without such deep warm waters, the storm would have caused cool waters to upwell and effectively throttled itself.
'The record warm ocean temperatures also mean more water has evaporated from the oceans leading to even heavier precipitation.'
However, he added that there is 'also a healthy dose of weather in the mix', with conditions fueling the storm.