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- Barclays is going against the grain and predicting a base rate reduction
The Bank of England will cut interest rates later this week, according to Barclays.
The central banks' Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this Thursday to decide whether to change the base rate.
Barclays is expecting the MPC to cut the rate by 25bps, from 4 per cent to 3.75 per cent.
However, it's expecting it to be a narrow call. The bank predicts a vote of 5-4 among the MPC's nine members in favour of the cut, and Governor Andrew Bailey having the deciding vote.
Barclays' prediction follows on from investment bank Goldman Sachs last week, which also forecast a cut to 3.75 per cent this coming Thursday.
The market as a whole is pricing in only a 25 per cent probability of a 25 percentage point cut, but the Bank of England has surprised the market in the past, according to Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays.
He thinks the decision will be swayed by increasing evidence of 'weaker-than-expected' economic data since September and the likelihood of inflation now falling.
A rate cut had not previously been on the cards, but the CPI inflation reading remained at 3.8 per cent in September, below what analysts had forecast.
The Bank of England now expects inflation to fall towards its 2 per cent target over the coming months.
Meaning said: 'Back in September, the committee was weighing up the balance of risks on both sides of its inflation outlook.
'We think the data since then, as well as signals of future fiscal policy changes, will have shifted that balance, leaving the committee more confident that disinflation is underway.'
'If we are wrong, it could be that Governor Bailey might be more concerned about the spot levels of inflation and other variables, preferring to see the whites of the eyes of disinflation.
'Or he may prefer to wait until the event risk of the Budget has passed.'
Mortgage rates have been falling in recent weeks in expectation that interest rates might be cut faster than previously thought.
Last week, Barclays cut mortgage rates for home buyers, following hot on the heels of HSBC, NatWest, Halifax and Santander.
Average fixed rate mortgages have now once again dipped below 5 per cent, according to rates scrutineer Moneyfacts, with the lowest two-year fixes now below 3.8 per cent.
Interest rate decisions have an impact on mortgage rates, though this is not immediate because predictions about where the base rate is headed are 'baked in' ahead of time.
The price of fixed mortgages is heavily influenced by Sonia swap rates - the inter-bank lending rates which are based on expectations of where rates will be in the future.
As of today, two-year Sonia swaps are at 3.48 per cent and five-year Sonia swaps are at 3.56 per cent.
Only a month ago, two-year swaps were at 3.7 per cent and five-year swaps were at 3.77 per cent.
Rachel Springall of Moneyfacts says borrowers on the hunt for a new mortgage deal should consider locking in a rate now, rather than waiting for further cuts by the Bank of England.
'Mortgage rates are much lower thanks to base rate cuts and swap rate movements,' Springall said.
'Sticky inflation makes it less likely for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to unanimously agree on making more cuts and uncertainty remains surrounding what may be revealed within the Budget.
'That said, fixed rate mortgages do not always bend to the will of base rate cuts, and instead are more intrinsically linked with swap rates.
'Borrowers keen to refinance would be wise to seek advice to secure a new deal and not wait around for more rate cuts by the Bank of England.'