Trump’s Master Plan: How He’s Cornering China on Trade
China’s Hidden Anxiety: Trump’s Trade Triumph Could Spell Trouble for Beijing
With its economy teetering on shaky ground, Xi is scrambling to preserve the global trade framework that transformed China from an impoverished nation into an economic titan. Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Trump is determined to dismantle that very system, arguing it has enriched China at America’s expense. This brewing superpower clash—spanning trade, technology, and geopolitical dominance—could plunge U.S.-China relations into a rivalry unseen since the 20th century’s ideological battles. For Beijing, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Trump’s Playbook: Strength and Strategy
Trump’s return to power came with a decisive electoral win and a Republican-led Congress, emboldening him to confront China from what his team sees as a position of unmatched leverage. Throughout his campaign, he hammered home the need to curb Beijing’s influence, and now, with the reins of government firmly in hand, he’s wasting no time. Advisors close to the administration reveal that Trump’s early diplomatic maneuvers—like pushing to resolve conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—are calculated steps to free up resources for the real showdown: China.
Take his cozying up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, for instance. While it’s raised eyebrows globally, insiders say it’s a deliberate tactic to sow discord between Moscow and Beijing, weakening a partnership that’s grown tighter in recent years as both nations challenge Western dominance. Then there’s the Panama Canal. Trump’s fixation on wresting control from Chinese-linked infrastructure isn’t just bluster—it’s a national security play aimed at choking off Beijing’s influence in America’s backyard. This week, he scored a symbolic win when BlackRock-led investors snapped up majority stakes in key canal ports, edging out a Hong Kong-based firm.
And then came the tariffs. On March 4, 2025, Trump slapped fresh levies on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s role in America’s fentanyl crisis. The move blindsided Chinese officials, who were still grappling with how to decode this unpredictable U.S. leader. For Xi, it’s a stark reminder that Trump’s “America First” agenda isn’t just rhetoric—it’s a wrecking ball aimed at the global trade norms that China has thrived under since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.
Beijing’s Nightmare Scenario
Xi’s sleepless nights stem from a haunting vision: a world where China, like the Soviet Union before it, is boxed in by trade barriers and sanctions. Beijing’s economic woes—slowing growth, a property sector meltdown, and mounting debt—only amplify the peril. Trump’s tariffs threaten to choke off China’s export-driven lifeline, while his broader strategy could sever its access to cutting-edge tech and vital markets. “Xi sees the parallels with the Cold War and knows isolation would be disastrous,” said one source familiar with Beijing’s inner circle. “He’s desperate to avoid that fate.”
Yet, China’s attempts to counter Trump are hitting roadblocks. Since the election, Beijing has sent delegations to Washington, pitching cooperation and warning that tariffs will fuel U.S. inflation—a problem Trump has vowed to tackle. But Trump’s team has been slow to engage, focused instead on domestic priorities like immigration and government spending. Xi’s economic advisors, meanwhile, are stockpiling retaliatory weapons, from export bans on rare minerals to diplomatic outreach to U.S. allies. Still, lessons from Trump’s first term linger: tit-for-tat tariffs hurt China more, given its $295 billion trade surplus with the U.S.
“They’re in a bind,” said Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar who’s advised Trump’s team. “Their economy’s fragile, and these new tariffs show their charm offensive has flopped.” Beijing’s response? A defiant 5% growth target for 2025 and a Foreign Ministry vow to “fight till the end” if the U.S. wants a trade war. But behind the bravado, anxiety simmers.
A Game of Trust and Tariffs
Oddly enough, the Trump-Xi dynamic started on a hopeful note. Trump invited Xi to his January 20, 2025, inauguration—a gesture Xi reciprocated by sending Vice President Han Zheng. Both leaders have floated the idea of a summit, echoing the warmer tones of Trump’s first term. But beneath the surface, tensions are boiling. Trump’s vision is clear: upend a trade system he blames for siphoning American jobs and wealth to China. His administration is already reviewing trade deals with partners like Mexico and Vietnam, aiming to block Chinese goods from sneaking into the U.S. via backdoors.
When Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in February, Mexico blinked, proposing to align its China tariffs with Washington’s. Trump still followed through with the levies this week, citing border security concerns, though he tossed automakers a temporary reprieve. It’s all part of a broader plan, says Matt Turpin, a former Trump official: “He’ll strike deals with everyone else first, leaving China to fester in its economic slump.”
Beijing, meanwhile, is playing a waiting game, hoping Trump’s team will outline concrete demands. Xi wants a grand bargain—one that covers trade, fentanyl, and more—not piecemeal concessions. But Trump’s latest 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods this week caught them off guard, exposing the risks of their cautious approach. “They’ve been holding out for a signal,” one Beijing insider said. “Now they’re scrambling.”
Beyond Tariffs: A Broader Assault
Trump’s arsenal isn’t limited to tariffs, which he’s hinted could climb to 60%. His trade trio—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer—is mulling restrictions on Chinese investments, curbs on U.S. capital flowing to China, and bans on high-tech exports. The goal? Cripple China’s dominance in sectors like shipbuilding and tech while bolstering America’s economic resilience. “These aren’t just punishments—they’re power plays,” one administration source explained.
Yet Trump keeps the door ajar for a deal, calling Xi a “good friend” and hinting at negotiations. The catch? Any agreement would likely demand sweeping changes to China’s state-run economy—reforms Xi rejected in 2019 and remains loath to accept. For now, Trump’s in no hurry. With the U.S. economy humming, he’s amassing “sticks and leverage” to bend Beijing to his will, advisors say.
A Rivalry Redefined
Trump’s first term rewrote the U.S.-China playbook, replacing decades of engagement with confrontation. Biden steadied the ship, restoring dialogue, but Trump 2.0 promises a wilder ride. Xi, in meetings with U.S. business leaders, has pushed a dual narrative: rivals, yes, but partners too. “He’s studied Trump closely and knows what he’s up against,” said Graham Allison, a Harvard expert who’s met Xi. “He wants coexistence, not all-out war.”
But Trump’s one-two tariff punches in 2025 have tested that resolve. China’s leadership is rattled, yet defiant, bracing for a long haul. For Xi, the Cold War isn’t just history—it’s a warning. And as Trump tightens the screws, Beijing’s secret worry is becoming impossible to hide.
