The secret behind Donald Trump’s abrupt pivot to Russia

 In a dramatic shift that has sent shockwaves through the international community, US President Donald Trump is steering America’s foreign policy toward an unexpected rapprochement with Russia. On a recent flight back from Florida aboard Air Force One on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, Trump expressed confidence in Moscow’s willingness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. “I think the Russians want to see the war end, I really do,” he told reporters during a concise yet revealing 14-minute briefing. His remarks signal a stark departure from the previous administration’s approach and hint at a broader reimagining of America’s role on the global stage.

A Rapid Push for Peace—or Power?

Trump’s optimism about Russia’s intentions comes with a blunt assessment of the ongoing conflict. “They’ve taken a lot of territory,” he said, acknowledging Moscow’s upper hand in Ukraine. Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly vowed to resolve the war swiftly upon returning to the White House in January 2025. True to his word, his administration has wasted no time, initiating a flurry of diplomatic moves in just 10 days that have left allies reeling and raised questions about the future of NATO and transatlantic unity.

The pace of this pivot is unprecedented. Trump has already held a direct call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, facilitated high-level talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, and sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and retired General Keith Kellogg to Kyiv to press Ukraine into concessions. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been sidelined from these early discussions, a move that critics argue undermines its sovereignty. Adding fuel to the fire, Trump has publicly lambasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, branding him a “dictator” and blaming him for instigating Russia’s aggression—a narrative that echoes Moscow’s own rhetoric.

This approach marks a radical reversal from the policies of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, who championed unwavering support for Ukraine while isolating Russia diplomatically and economically. For the past three years, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the US had positioned itself as a staunch defender of Kyiv. Now, Trump’s administration appears to be treating Russia as a legitimate great power—a status it hasn’t enjoyed in Western eyes since at least the early 2000s, before Putin’s 2008 incursion into Georgia began to erode trust.

A Strategic Gamble with High Stakes

The implications of Trump’s strategy extend far beyond Ukraine. By cozying up to Moscow, he is testing the durability of America’s decades-long alliances with NATO and the European Union. European leaders, along with Republicans in Congress and Washington’s foreign policy elite, had expected Trump to pursue a “peace through strength” doctrine after his re-election. Instead, his swift alignment with Russia has left them scrambling to adapt to a new reality.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a transatlantic security expert at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), warns that Trump’s focus seems to be on ending the war “at any cost,” regardless of the long-term consequences. “Putin could extract concessions from the US that embolden him for future aggression,” she cautions, suggesting that this approach might inadvertently strengthen Russia’s hand. Similarly, Democratic Representative Jason Crow of Colorado has criticized Trump’s decision to prioritize talks with Russia over coordination with Ukraine, arguing that it sends “exactly the wrong message” and reflects an erratic, tweet-driven policy shift.

The seeds of this diplomatic whirlwind were planted earlier this month when Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to Moscow to secure the release of American teacher Marc Fogel, detained since 2021 on cannabis-related charges. The successful prisoner swap, which included a three-hour meeting between Witkoff and Putin, appears to have laid the groundwork for broader negotiations. “It was a show of good faith from Putin,” Witkoff remarked, noting the “positivity” it generated. This momentum carried over to Riyadh, where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Russian officials on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, for a 4.5-hour discussion hosted by Saudi Arabia at the opulent Diriyah Palace.

Rubio emerged from the talks cautiously optimistic. “They’re willing to engage in a serious process to determine how and when this war can end,” he said, though he acknowledged that success hinges on all parties’ willingness to compromise. The menu of steak, scallops, and caviar may have symbolized a thaw, but the stakes remain high.

A Divided Response at Home

Trump’s Russia-friendly stance has sparked unease among some Republicans, despite the party’s broader support for his leadership. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a known national security hawk, pushed back against the White House’s suggestion that Ukraine bears responsibility for the war. “Vladimir Putin started this war. He’s a gangster,” Kennedy asserted. Yet administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have doubled down on their approach. “How are you going to end the war unless you’re talking to Russia?” Vance argued on Thursday, February 20, 2025, framing peace as a priority for the American people above all else.

The shift in tone toward Ukraine has been particularly striking. Initially, Trump’s team seemed more concerned about Putin’s reluctance to negotiate than Zelenskyy’s. They even floated the idea of tightening sanctions on Russian energy to force Moscow’s hand. But after Ukraine rejected a US-proposed deal on critical mineral rights—offering America half the revenues—Trump’s frustration with Zelenskyy boiled over. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz expressed hope that Zelenskyy would “come to the table” soon, but the president’s personal attacks on the Ukrainian leader suggest a deepening rift.

Analysts like Andrew Bishop of Signum Global Advisors see this as a calculated move. “Trump needed to break the inertia in the conflict, and he chose to pressure Ukraine rather than Russia,” Bishop explains, citing Trump’s distaste for Zelenskyy and the economic risks of targeting Russian oil. Former National Security Adviser John Bolton, however, warns that Trump’s apparent camaraderie with Putin is handing Russia an unearned advantage. “He’s repeating Russian talking points that simply aren’t true,” Bolton says.

What Does America Gain?

Critics across the political spectrum are questioning the endgame. Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies calls the policy a “sellout” of a democracy battling an authoritarian foe, asking, “What concessions is Russia making? What do we get out of this?” For now, the answer remains unclear. While some Republicans, like Senator Rick Scott of Florida, insist Trump wants Ukraine to prevail, others fear the US is ceding ground to a “despicable” Putin.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has urged patience, advocating for “space” to let Trump’s team work toward a peaceful resolution. But experts like William Pomeranz of the Wilson Center argue that the damage is already done. “We had Russia on the run, and this is giving Putin a lifeline,” he laments. Still, Bolton believes the shift isn’t permanent, pointing to a lack of congressional or public support for a lasting pro-Russia tilt.

The path forward hinges on Ukraine’s willingness to cede territory and the strength of any security guarantees against future Russian aggression. Anja Manuel, a former State Department official, envisions a compromise where Ukraine sacrifices some land for a prosperous, Western-aligned future—potentially even NATO membership. Yet for now, Trump’s lightning-fast engagement with Putin has left the world on edge, signaling a turn toward a “realist, multipolar” order where America may find itself increasingly isolated.

A New World Order?

As of February 22, 2025, Trump’s bold gamble is reshaping global power dynamics. Whether it ends in peace or emboldens adversaries remains to be seen. For Ukraine, the pressure is mounting; for NATO and the EU, the test of unity is just beginning. And for the United States, the question looms: Can Trump’s deal-making instincts deliver a stable outcome, or will they unravel decades of strategic alliances? Only time—and the negotiating table—will tell.