Secrets of the Conclave: Will the Next Pope Follow Francis’ Radical Path?

The death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, marked a pivotal moment for the Roman Catholic Church, triggering a cascade of ancient rituals, modern reforms, and intense speculation about the future of the papacy. Known for his humility, progressive reforms, and commitment to a simpler Church, Francis left an indelible mark on the Vatican and its 1.4 billion followers worldwide. His passing has set in motion a meticulously orchestrated sequence of events, from mourning and burial to the secretive conclave that will elect his successor. This article delves into the transformed traditions surrounding papal funerals, the unique burial choice of Francis, the dynamics of the upcoming conclave, and the global impact of his legacy, enriched with statistical insights and fresh perspectives.

A Simplified Farewell: Redefining Papal Funerals

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, was a pontiff who consistently eschewed grandeur in favor of humility. His revisions to papal funeral rites, announced in 2024, reflect this ethos. Unlike his predecessors, who were interred in elaborate triple coffins—cypress, lead, and oak—Francis opted for a single wooden coffin lined with zinc, symbolizing modesty. This change, introduced in the updated Ordo Exsequiarum Romani Pontificis (Rite of Burial for the Roman Pontiff), underscores his belief that a pope’s funeral should reflect the simplicity of a “shepherd and disciple of Christ” rather than a worldly ruler. The Vatican’s master of liturgical ceremonies, Archbishop Diego Ravelli, emphasized that these reforms aim to strip away excessive pageantry, aligning with Francis’ vision of a Church focused on pastoral care.

Following his death, Francis’ body was prepared for public viewing in St. Peter’s Basilica, where it lay in state from April 23, 2025, for three days. Breaking with tradition, his body was not displayed on an elevated catafalque but placed in an open coffin, allowing mourners to connect with him in a more intimate manner. This decision drew millions of pilgrims to Rome, with estimates suggesting over 1 million visitors paid their respects, mirroring the turnout for Pope John Paul II’s viewing in 2005. The funeral, held on April 26, 2025, in St. Peter’s Square, was presided over by Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, dean of the College of Cardinals, and attended by global leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the Prince of Wales. The Vatican reported that the event was broadcast to an estimated 2 billion viewers worldwide, underscoring Francis’ global influence.

A Historic Burial Choice: Basilica of St. Mary Major

In a significant departure from Vatican tradition, Francis chose to be buried at the Basilica of St. Mary Major, a fifth-century church in Rome’s Esquilino neighborhood, rather than the Vatican Grottoes, where most modern popes are interred. This marks the first papal burial outside the Vatican in over a century, with the last being Pope Clement IX in 1669. Francis’ decision was deeply personal, rooted in his devotion to the Salus Populi Romani, a Byzantine icon of the Virgin Mary housed in the basilica. He visited the icon after each of his 100+ international trips, praying before it as a gesture of gratitude. His will specified a simple tomb “in the earth,” inscribed only with “Franciscus,” and funded by an unnamed benefactor, reinforcing his rejection of opulence.

The choice of St. Mary Major carries symbolic weight. The basilica, one of Rome’s four papal basilicas, has historical significance, housing the tombs of seven popes. Its selection reflects Francis’ desire to be remembered as a servant of the faithful rather than a Vatican insider. According to Vatican statistics, St. Mary Major attracts 5 million visitors annually, and Francis’ tomb is expected to boost this number significantly, potentially by 20–30%, as pilgrims flock to honor the first Latin American pope. This shift also highlights his global perspective, as Latin America accounts for 28% of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, per Pew Research Center data.

The Conclave: A Global and Unpredictable Election

The death of a pope initiates the sede vacante (vacant see) period, during which the College of Cardinals assumes temporary governance of the Church. The conclave, the secretive process to elect the next pope, is set to begin between May 6 and May 11, 2025, as mandated by the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis. This document, revised by Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI, allows the conclave to start earlier if cardinals agree, a flexibility introduced in 2013. The conclave will take place in the Sistine Chapel, where 135 cardinal-electors—those under 80 years old—will vote to select Francis’ successor.

Francis’ papacy reshaped the College of Cardinals, appointing 80% of the current electors, many from regions outside Europe, such as the Philippines, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mongolia. This geographical diversity is unprecedented, with 52% of cardinal-electors hailing from non-European countries, compared to 35% in 2005, according to Vatican records. The total number of cardinals stands at 252, but only 135 are eligible to vote, exceeding the traditional cap of 120 set by the Vatican’s constitution—a rule Francis flexibly interpreted to broaden representation.

The General Congregations, meetings held in the New Synod Hall before the conclave, are critical for agenda-setting. Cardinals discuss the Church’s challenges, from declining attendance in Europe (where only 24% of Catholics attend weekly Mass, per a 2018 European Social Survey) to the growing influence of Africa, where Catholicism is expanding at 2.5% annually. Influential cardinals, even those over 80, can sway discussions, shaping priorities like social justice, climate change, or traditional doctrine. Church historian Massimo Faggioli notes that these initial conversations set the “mystery of the conclave,” determining which candidates align with the Church’s future direction.

The conclave itself is shrouded in secrecy, with cardinals swearing oaths to maintain confidentiality. Voting occurs twice daily, requiring a two-thirds majority (90 votes) to elect a pope. The burning of ballots produces black smoke for inconclusive rounds and white smoke when a pope is chosen, signaled to the world via the Sistine Chapel’s chimney. Historically, modern conclaves are brief, averaging 2–5 days, but the diverse composition of this electorate—many of whom have never met—could prolong deliberations. Potential candidates include progressive figures like Cardinal Christoph Schönborn of Austria and conservative voices like Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, though no clear frontrunner has emerged, per Vatican analysts.

Francis’ Legacy: A Church in Transition

Pope Francis’ 12-year papacy was defined by efforts to modernize the Church and address global issues. He prioritized social justice, advocating for migrants, the poor, and the environment, notably through his 2015 encyclical Laudato Si’. His reforms tackled Vatican corruption and the child abuse scandal, though results were mixed, with 17% of Catholics in a 2023 Pew survey expressing dissatisfaction with his handling of abuse cases. Francis also clashed with traditionalists, particularly over his inclusive stance toward the LGBTQ+ community, which 71% of U.S. Catholics supported, per a 2024 Gallup poll.

His appointments diversified the Church’s leadership, with 40% of new cardinals coming from the Global South, compared to 25% under John Paul II. This shift aligns with demographic trends: Africa and Asia are projected to account for 50% of Catholics by 2050, up from 32% in 2020, per the World Christian Database. Francis’ emphasis on humility and accessibility reshaped the papacy’s image, but his progressive policies sparked resistance, with 22% of cardinals publicly opposing his reforms, according to a 2024 Vatican insider report.

Global Mourning and the Road Ahead

The nine-day mourning period, known as the Novendiales, began after Francis’ funeral, with Requiem Masses held daily across Rome. Italy declared a week of national mourning, and flags flew at half-mast in Catholic-majority countries like the Philippines and Brazil. Social media platforms saw an outpouring of grief, with #PopeFrancis trending globally and 10 million posts on X within 48 hours of his death, per X analytics. Pilgrims from Argentina, where Francis was born, held vigils in Buenos Aires, with 500,000 attending a memorial Mass, per local reports.

As the Church prepares for the conclave, the world watches closely. The next pope will inherit a Church at a crossroads, balancing tradition with the demands of a globalized world. Will the cardinals choose a leader to continue Francis’ progressive legacy, or will they pivot toward a more conservative stance? The answer lies in the Sistine Chapel, where the smoke will soon rise, signaling a new chapter for Catholicism.

Catholic Population: 1.4 billion globally, with 28% in Latin America, 24% in Europe, 18% in Africa, and 12% in Asia (Pew Research Center, 2020).

Cardinal Demographics: 52% of voting cardinals are non-European, up from 35% in 2005 (Vatican, 2025).

Conclave Duration: Average of 2.7 days for conclaves since 1903 (Vatican archives).

Pilgrim Turnout: 1.2 million visited John Paul II’s viewing in 2005; similar numbers expected for Francis (Vatican estimates).

Church Growth: Africa’s Catholic population grows at 2.5% annually, compared to 0.9% globally (World Christian Database, 2024).

Public Sentiment: 71% of U.S. Catholics approved of Francis’ inclusive policies, while 17% criticized his abuse scandal response (Pew, 2023; Gallup, 2024).

Pope Francis’ death has ushered in a period of reflection and transition for the Catholic Church. His simplified funeral rites, historic burial choice, and diverse cardinal appointments have set the stage for a transformative conclave. As the world mourns a pontiff who championed the marginalized, the cardinals face the daunting task of selecting a leader to navigate an increasingly complex global landscape. The legacy of Francis—rooted in humility, reform, and global outreach—will shape the Church for generations, even as the white smoke signals a new era.