Revealed: What the Government said in secret court sessions about relocating Afghans to the UK - and what it's saying now...
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During two years and more than 20 court hearings, ministers argued a super-injunction was necessary to give them the chance to relocate tens of thousands of Afghans to the UK, with costs of up to £7billion cited regularly.
Yesterday the Ministry of Defence was saying the numbers were in the single-digit thousands and the costs £400 million to £800 million. Here we contrast what they said in court – when journalists were gagged – and what they are saying now:
THE COSTS
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT SAID YESTERDAY:
Defence Secretary John Healey to the Commons: ‘On the question of the £7 billion, this was a previous estimate. It is not related simply to the Afghan recovery route. It is an estimate of the total cost of all Government Afghan schemes for the entire period in which they may operate.
‘The cost of the ARR (Afghanistan Response Route) scheme to date, the cost and the sums committed to bring the 900 principals and their immediate families that are in Britain or in transit is around £400 million, and I expect a similar sum to be the cost of those still to come.’
MoD officials: ‘The total amount for ALL schemes was a potential £7 billion. Not for this incident alone. As you know £400 million is what is spent on this incident so far with about double to come.’
WHAT IT TOLD THE COURT:
An MoD briefing paper summing up an October 2024 meeting of the home and economic affairs committee of Cabinet members talked about ‘the strategic approach to manage the impact of the data incident’.
‘The current policy response to the data incident will mean relocating c.25,000 Afghans... this will mean relocating more Afghans to the UK... this will extend the scheme for another 5 years at a cost of c.£7billion.’
Mr Justice Chamberlain in November 2024: ‘I’m starting to doubt myself – am I going bonkers, because it really is £6 billion?’ [Later confirmed to be £7 billion]Cathryn McGahey KC for the MoD: ‘It is...Yes, it’s a very large amount of public money being spent without currently any information to the public.’
February 2025
Mr Justice Chamberlain, during discussions in court: ‘You’re going to have to say something about all of this, because you’re spending £7 billion and you’re letting in many thousands of people that you wouldn’t have been letting in before. If you’re doing all of those things, you’re going to have to say something at some point.’
July 2025
Mr Justice Chamberlain: ‘People will want to judge for themselves... to know a bit of detail about what exactly was lost; what was it, that caused the Government to decide to spend £7 billion or whatever it is.’
Ms McGahey KC for the MoD: ‘Yes.’
NUMBERS ARRIVING
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT SAID YESTERDAY:
Around 4,500 people, made up of 900 ‘principal’ applicants and approximately 3,600 family members, have been brought to the UK or are in transit so far through the Afghanistan Response Route. A further estimated 600 and their relatives are expected to be relocated before the scheme closes, a total of 6,900 people.
WHAT IT TOLD THE COURT:
October 2024:
Defence Secretary John Healey’s presentation to the home and economic affairs committee of Cabinet members: ‘This paper... argues for a reformed Afghan Resettlement Programme that could see c.36,000 settled. Assuming minsters are content to proceed as recommended, we would be aspiring to develop a programme which resettles c.36,000 people (of which c.3,500 are already in the relocation pipeline).’
February 2025
MoD briefing paper in February 2025 summing up the HEA Cabinet meeting:
‘The HEA agreed that the current policy response which offers relocation to the UK...(c.25,000 Afghans) remained appropriate.’
‘The current policy response to the data incident will mean relocating c.25,000 Afghans’
June 2025
Dominic Wilson, senior mandarin at the Cabinet Office, in a ‘statement of truth’ to High Court last month:
- There are 6,169 principal applicants affected by data breach who are eligible for relocation. Plus 14,952 confirmed family members and 21,451 family members remaining to be confirmed. Total 42,572 individuals, all data-affected and eligible for relocation.
- Of these 42,572, so far 16,156 individuals have already been relocated to the UK. A further 6,592 are ‘currently being progressed’ to the UK
- Another batch of 21,300 people not affected by the data breach are also coming.
